When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the war had already begun beyond the battlefield: an informational war. Social media is often considered crucial for spreading Russian narratives regarding the Ukraine war. But is this justification valid? Is consuming news via social media truly decisive when it comes to the success of Russian disinformation?
Dr. Jan Zilinsky, Prof. Yannis Theocharis, and Dr. Franziska Pradel from the Chair of Digital Governance at the HfP delve into this assumption in their study, published in collaboration with an international team of researchers. They conducted surveys in 19 countries, including numerous European states and countries that have been less studied yet, such as Greece, Serbia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, but also Brazil and the USA.
Pre-existing conspiracy thinking has a greater impact than social media consumption
Russian disinformation campaigns on social media are infamous, yet the study results suggest that they are not the crucial factor in the success of Russian narratives and justifications regarding the Ukraine war. Survey participants who already had a tendency to believe conspiracy theories were particularly likely to consider Russia's misinformation about the Ukraine war as true.
"The tendency towards conspiracy-oriented thinking correlates with people's receptivity to Russian narratives, while social media consumption itself seems to plays only a smaller role," says Jan Zilinsky, the lead author of the study. "At the same time, it's important to recognize that most European citizens do not uncritically accept Russian war propaganda. Building on this foundation of resilience will be key to strengthening trust in democratic institutions and values over the long run."
A particularly strong prevalence of conspirational thinking was observed in Brazil, Serbia, and Greece. Survey participants from Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, on the other hand, were less inclined to believe in conspirational narratives in general.
Individual factors have varying degrees of influence depending on the country
Regarding other individual factors such as the type of media consumed, age, or the degree of political cynicism, the surveys revealed significant differences between countries. While in certain countries it did play a role for the belief in Russian war propaganda, whether the source of information was traditional media such as newspapers and television or social media, overall, the type of media was not a crucial factor for the success of Russian disinformation. Moreover, contrary to older study findings in the US, older survey participants did not show greater susceptibility to disinformation. Additionally, political cynicism was found to be less decisive for the success of Russian war propaganda on individuals compared to belief in conspiracy narratives.