Achieving and maintaining peace is challenging globally. Approximately 40% of all civil wars reignite after an average of seven years, making it crucial to explore ways to reduce recurrence risk. While previous research focused on institutional measures like power-sharing and security sector reforms, this study highlights the significant role of public beliefs and its volatility to media influences.
The study co-authored by Professor Katrin Paula (Professorship of Global Security and Technology at HfP) along with Sabine Carey (University of Mannheim) and Christian Gläßel (Hertie School) examines Nepal's situation following its civil war that ended in 2006. The researchers analyzed the impact of Fulbari FM, an anti-government radio station, on people's attitudes three years after its closure. Fulbari FM, owned by a well-known minority-group leader who opposed the Nepalese constitution, was associated with protests that turned violent in August 2015, leading to its shutdown.
Combining original survey data collected in 2018 with spatial radio transmission data, the study assessed trust in police, attitudes towards peaceful activism, and confidence in future stability. The researchers utilized variation in Fulbari FM's reception from two transmitters at different locations for their analysis.
Results showed that people in the former broadcast area were generally more distrustful of political activity and perceived its escalation potential as destabilizing, regardless of political affiliations. The Tharu minority, heavily impacted by the civil war and ongoing discrimination, displayed a notably more pessimistic outlook.
The study concludes that media in unstable post-conflict settings can have long-term effects on attitudes toward state institutions. However, the researchers emphasize that censorship is not the solution. Instead, they suggest that populations and political authorities need to accommodate oppositional voices as a fundamental part of the democratic process and build trust in institutionalized mechanisms for peaceful conflict resolution.