In many African states, violence is a common tool for governments to secure power during elections. However, how are foreign direct investments and the exercise of violence before elections related? Prof. Dr. Katrin Paula (Professorship for Global Security & Technology) and Dr. Tobias Rommel (Chair for international Relations ), along with Dr. Tabea Palmtag (University of Zurich) have empirically examined this in their recent study published in the prestigious Journal of Peace Research for 15 Sub-Saharan African countries. The analysis is based on geocoded data providing information on the use of government violence before elections, foreign investments and previous election results. The findings show that foreign investments can indeed reduce violence during election campaigns. While this does not apply to stronghold of incumbents and opposition, the correlation is evident in regions with uncertain election outcomes.

The researchers primarily see this as a shift in the election campaign strategies of those in power. When domestic markets are open to international capital, foreign direct investments increasingly enable governments to gain the support of their citizens through monetary means. Consequently, maintaining power, especially in electorally contested regions.

“Our results can provide a basis or decision-making in the foreign policy of democratic countries, especially when they allow multinational companies to invest in other countries.” says Prof. Katrin Paula. Dr. Tobias Rommel adds: “Foreign investments can indeed strengthen their markets and potentially reduce violence against the population.” However, the researchers also see that there is a risk of supporting autocratic tendencies for the sake of maintaining power and a need to consider both aspects in decision making.

Link to the scientific article in the Journal of Peace Research:
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433231214427