Sanctions have a poor reputation. This is not surprising as powerful culprits often escape adequate punishments for their violations of international norms. There is nevertheless increasing evidence that properly designed sanctions can force the target to refrain from violating international norms. Gerald Schneider (based on joint research with Thies Niemeier) will address this regularity through a predictive approach. Based on a detailed data set, the study predicts the onset, intensity, and success of sanctions by the European Union and the United States in the post-Cold War era. The conditional forecasts answer the “what-if” question of whether stronger sanctions could have provoked the desired policy changes and prevented the Russian war of aggression. The counterfactual predictions show: Stricter EU coercion against Russia after the annexation of Crimea could have triggered policy concessions from the regime of President Putin, but similarly intensive measures by the United States would not necessarily have had the same desirable effect.
Join the Political Economy Seminar for a presentation and discussion of this research with Prof. Dr. Gerald Schneider (University of Konstanz), entitled "COUNTERFACTUAL COERCION: Could Harsher Sanctions Against Russia Have Prevented the Worst?" on:
Thu, 13 July 2023, 11:00am - 12:30pm
Hochschule für Politik (Munich School of Politics & Public Policy) at the TUM
OR virtually at:
Co-Convenors: Timm Betz, Tim Büthe, Hanna Hottenrott, Sebastian Goerg, Amy Pond & Tobias Rommel
Gerald Schneider is Professor of International Politics at the University of Konstanz. His main areas of research are European Union decision making, the economic causes and consequences of armed violence as well as well as the political economy of financial crises and political discrimination. He is the author or co-author of some 250 articles and chapters, including recently in the European Economic Review, International Studies Quarterly, and Political Geography. He has served as Editor of European Union Politics since 2000, as President of the European Political Science Association and as Vice President of the International Studies Association (ISA); in 2009, he was Program Chair for the 50th annual convention of the International Studies Association in New York City. He has held visiting positions around the globe. Gerald Schneider holds a master and doctorate in Political Science from the University of Zürich.