The German parliament, the Bundestag, needs to shrink—this is the demand of both high ranking politicians and the public. However, for over two decades, politicians have been searching for a solution to reduce the size of the Bundestag to a fixed number of 598 seats, without compromising the proportionality of party votes and the guaranteed representation of district winners —a trilemma. Parties with regional strongholds primarily advocate for maintaining district representation, while others prioritize proportionality in the translation of party votes to seats. There is a significant fear that the new regulations could cause their own camp to lose seats.

Dr. Tobias Rommel (Chair of International Relations at the HfP), along with Dr. Pascal Langenbach (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) and Prof. Lukas Haffert (University of Geneva), examined the preferences of German voters regarding the electoral reform the Bundestag passed in March 2023. A total of 1,717 voters were surveyed.

The result: Voters acknowledge the trilemma. While each of the three normative goals—proportionality, district representation, and a fixed Bundestag size—individually garners majority support, no combination of two goals achieves majority backing. Hence, clear communication is essential for gaining acceptance of reforms. “When voters are informed about the trade-offs and the conflicts between different goals, they understand and accept necessary compromises," says Tobias Rommel from HfP. In such cases, even a limited understanding of the electoral system seems to be less important.

According to the study's findings, except for AfD supporters—who oppose both the current system and any reform—voters across all parties acknowledge the need for electoral reform. This shows that abstract principles can still outweigh party-political considerations.

Read the full article: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000556

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