In autocracies, economic performance is seen as a key factor for regime stability. However, the effects of economic globalization on the support for such regimes remain insufficiently researched. A widespread assumption is that globalization undermines the stability of autocratic regimes. Yet, given the ongoing progress of globalization alongside the rise in autocratic governments, this hypothesis seems questionable.
Dr. Tobias Rommel, from the Chair of International Relations, explores this issue in his latest research, analyzing survey data from 20 African and 14 other autocracies, including countries in South America, the Middle East, and Asia. With the growing significance of FDI, the study examines how these investments influence political preferences in autocracies.
The research considers that while FDI can lead to overall economic gains for a country, the benefits and drawbacks are often unevenly distributed among the population. For instance, highly skilled workers typically benefit from FDI, gaining higher wages and better job opportunities with multinational corporations. In contrast, less skilled workers often face economic insecurity and job losses due to increased competition and resource reallocation favoring more productive companies.
In addition to highlighting the varied economic impacts of FDI, the study uncovers a significant impact of FDI on support for autocratic regimes. "The economic conditions of citizens are reflected in their political preferences," says Rommel. "We observe that the economic situation of highly skilled workers improves due to FDI, which increases their trust in the government and makes them more likely to perceive their country as democratic, even though the country they live in is in fact a dictatorship." Conversely, less skilled workers tend to experience growing economic difficulties, leading to a loss of trust in the existing autocratic political institutions.
For the full academic article in the journal Comparative Political Studies:
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00104140231194058