Using Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates, the study examines age-standardised HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates from 2010 to 2023, providing projections up to 2030. The study reveals that while there was a global decline in new infections, Kazakhstan experienced sharp increases in prevalence and incidence, even as mortality decreased. The authors interpret this as a transition towards a chronic and expanding epidemic concentrated among adults aged 30 to 69. The paper calls for wider PrEP and testing coverage, as well as for the tackling of structural barriers, including stigma and restrictive policies, that hinder prevention efforts.

Lunchenkov contributed to the study's design, analysis and writing, collaborating with colleagues in Kazakhstan and the United States. This work reflects the professorship's broader commitment to global health and its specific focus on HIV prevention and the health of key populations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

You can read the full open-access paper on the publishers website.