The research team, including Nikolay Lunchenkov from TUM School of Social Sciences and Technology, used advanced agent-based modeling to analyze the outbreak dynamics among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Berlin. At its peak, the city reported over 200 new cases per week before seeing a significant decline within months.

The study’s key finding challenges conventional assumptions about outbreak control. While vaccination campaigns were implemented, the research demonstrates that vaccination had only a marginal effect on the epidemic’s decline. Instead, two factors proved decisive: natural immunity acquired through infection among individuals with high contact rates, and temporary behavioral changes within the affected community.

“These findings underscore that timely and transparent communication about transmission routes can trigger spontaneous protective behaviors within key populations,” Nikolay Lunchenkov notes, emphasizing the critical role of targeted sexual health education as a core component of outbreak response.

The research also provides important insights for ongoing public health preparedness, suggesting that the combination of infection-derived immunity and the 2022 vaccination campaign may contribute to herd immunity against emerging clade I mpox threats in Berlin’s MSM population.

You can read the full open-access publication on the publishers website.